ACC Basketball

ACC Bracketology | Week 12

(Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports)

Reminder: These are not how I would seed these teams, this is just how I think the committee will seed these teams based on current results with a little projection thrown in. My meaning…I’m guessing.

1 SEEDS

Kentucky
Virginia
Kansas
Arizona

NOT-SO-DEEP THOUGHTS: The undefeated Kentucky Wildcats are the top overall number one seed, which may be the most obvious statement I’ve ever written. Virginia has just one “good” loss, four road victories against the current top-25 and 12 wins against the top-100. Arizona continues to own the west, but they’re not a lock for a top-seed, despite just two loses. They have just four wins over the top-50 , only two road wins against the top-100 and one of their loses was to a team outside the top-100 (UNLV).

The last number one seed on my list will be Kansas. Yep, the same Kansas team that got whipped by Kentucky and owned by Temple. The fact is, they have eight wins against the top-50, four more if you count the top-100 and zero bad loses playing the country’s toughest schedule in the nation’s toughest conference (from bottom to top).

2 SEEDS

Duke
Wisconsin
Gonzaga
Villanova

NOT-SO-DEEP THOUGHTS: ESPN has Duke back as a 1-seed, but I’m keeping them down one for now. They do have three amazing road wins against three teams currently sitting in the top-10 in the RPI. No one else can say that. They are an impressive 8-1 against the top-100, but those loses to NC State and Miami already look bad and the way those teams are playing, will look worse by season’s end.

Wisconsin is a solid 12-1 against the top-100, with a road loss to Rutgers as their only true blemish. Could easily make an argument that both Duke and Wisconsin should be one seeds over Kansas and Arizona. Gonzaga keeps winning, but at this point, their SOS is getting worse, as everyone else’s SOS is getting better. They’re going to need more upsets to happen to even dream of a 1-seed, let alone hold onto the 2-seed. They have just three wins over the top-50 (none of those wins were against top-20 teams).

Lastly, Villanova is rolling yet again, but the SOS remains an issue. They have faced just seven top-50 teams, going a decent 5-2. Their best win was against VCU, but they do have seven more games coming up against top-50 teams.

3 SEEDS

Utah
Louisville
Virginia Commonwealth
Iowa State

NOT-SO-DEEP THOUGHTS: I don’t like putting Utah up this high. The fact is, they are just 1-3 against the top-50, 5-4 against the top-100. Their only impressive victory was against Wichita State at home. They only have two more top-50 teams remaining on their schedule (Stanford, Arizona), both at home. Louisville sits behind UNC in most breakdowns, but I’m not sure why. They have three wins against the top-50 and two of their three loses were to potential number one seeds, plus Carolina on the road.

I’m also not a big fan of putting VCU up this high. Their best win was against Northern Iowa, as they’ve gone just 2-3 against the top-50, although they are 9-4 against the top-100. They don’t have a lot of top-50 opponents left on their schedule, but they do have some challenging road games (at G.W., Richmond and Davidson) that could boost their rating a bit.

Iowa State has a good argument to be a 2-seed. They have nine wins against the top-100, six against the top-50, including a home win against Kansas. Also, three of their loses came against teams currently ranked in the top-15 of the RPI. However, two tough loses to (#98) South Carolina and (#145) Texas Tech continue to scar their resume a bit.

4 SEEDS

Baylor
Notre Dame
West Virginia
Maryland

NOT-SO-DEEP THOUGHTS: Baylor has faced seven top-50 teams and managed to walk away with four wins. Add in the top-100 and they’re 8-5. However, they’ll be tested down the stretch, as Texas Tech is the only non-top 100 team remaining on their schedule. Thanks to a bad non-conference schedule, Notre Dame is getting no love from the RPI. However, they have wins over Duke, North Carolina and Michigan State, plus two tight loses against top teams (20) Providence (3) Virginia.

West Virginia’s overall record continues to surprise everyone, but I’m not sure I’m buying yet. They are just 2-4 against the top-50, with their only wins coming against (49) Wofford and an inconsistent (19) Oklahoma squad. They still have to face (13) Baylor twice, plus road games against at Iowa State and Kansas (who they face twice). Maryland has four solid wins, including sweeping Michigan State and no bad loses (unless you include losing on the road to Illinois). They have two tough games remaining on their schedule (Indiana, Wisconsin) and both are at home.

OTHER ACC TEAMS IN:

North Carolina (5-seed)
Clemson (11-seed)

NOT-SO-DEEP THOUGHTS: North Carolina gets a lot of love from the RPI (currently 10th), but I’m not sure I get it. They are just 2-6 against the top-50. Their two wins, both at home were both games they should have won. Plus, they have three home loses. Ouch.

Clemson isn’t in anyone’s bracketology, but I’m sticking them in. The ACC should get six teams in and the Tigers are the sixth best team in the conference as NC State, Pittsburgh and Miami continue to falter. Clemson is 2-3 against the top-50, with wins over LSU and Arkansas, 5-4 against the top-100. However, they have four loses to teams outside the top-100, including a November defeat to 240th Winthrop.

JUST OUT: 

NC State
Pittsburgh
Miami

NOT-SO-DEEP THOUGHTS: The Wolfpack have dropped five of seven since beating Duke, with their only wins come against non-tournament teams, Florida State and Georgia Tech. Pittsburgh has that recent win against Notre Dame, but that’s their only win against a top-50 team (1-4). Their next best win was against Kansas State, who is barely in the top-100. They also have two bad loses to (191) Hawaii and (194) Virginia Tech. Miami was a top-25 team just recently after beating Duke in Cameron, but they’ve lost three straight (including two at home, one against lowly Georgia Tech) and have just two more signature win opportunities on their schedule.

NEED A MIRACLE:

Florida State

NOT-SO-DEEP THOUGHTS: They’re currently ranked in 128th in the RPI. They are 0-4 against the top-50 and 3-9 against the top-100. At least they have Virginia, Duke and Louisville all remaining on their schedule. If they want to make a late-season impression, the opportunity will be there.

NEED TO WIN ACC TOURNAMENT:

Wake Forest
Boston College
Virginia Tech
Georgia Tech

NOT-SO-DEEP THOUGHTS: What can I say, these four teams have a combined six wins in conference and Wake has three of them, currently riding a two-game winning streak. Since all four are below .500 on the season, there won’t be any tournament without winning the ACC Tournament.

BANNED FROM POST-SEASON

Syracuse

NOT-SO-DEEP THOUGHTS: We all know what happened here.

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